“He’s beatable,” Merritt said. “I still say he’s beatable. Before the race I said he was beatable, and even though I got second, I still believe he’s beatable.”
Wariner is not beatable. He is even more of a lock in any 400 he enters than Isi in the wPV, and he is continuing to improve every year. It could be years before someone beats him in a 4.
PR's by age:
Age 18, Wariner 46.10, Merritt 45.25 Age 19, Wariner 45.13, Merritt 44.73 Age 20, Wariner 44.00, Merritt 44.14 Age 21, Wariner 43.93, Merritt 43.96
Time is on the side of Merritt.
Double check your age 18 data because Wariner did 45.57. Also, at age 19 he got hurt before the season was half over. From age 20 thru 23 he's been pretty much in a class by himself. JG
I look at these statistic and see a very enjoyable 5 years in the 400. We can also expect it to get more interesting with a healthy Xavier Carter.
Mike67 wrote:I say........................................................................................................................... Merritt will never beat Wariner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As a matter of fact, Wariner will not be beaten in a contested 400 meter dash until at least 2013(And that's a big maybe). This is "The Man" and he will rule this event with an iron fist! Before his career is over, his dominance of the event will bring tremendous noteriety to himself and this great sport. Sit back and enjoy the next 7 - 10 years, as you'll not see this again in your lifetimes!
Now that's what I like, a guy who's willing to call his shot without any wiggle room.
I was thinking someone must have forgotten to close the barn door.
EPelle wrote:Merritt believes he has a few minor adjustments to make which will pay him very nice dividends - one of those is relaxing down the stretch....
In Athens Otis Harris seemed to me to be a person of large character and honor and was able to show grace and respect for his country all the while being disappointed in loosing the gold by .2 seconds... I think Wariner and the other 2 in Osaka could learn something.
Harris did seem bitterly disappointed, and he appeared media savvy enough to play it up for the cameras. But that doesn't mean everyone will react this way or even has to. After several races the last couple of seasons Wariner has gone to shake Merritt's hand and Merritt looks like he's being handed dog turds (and Merritt isn't the only Yank sprinter who has reacted this way to Wariner, post race). Wariner doesn't have to set any tone whatsoever for interviews. Like some of the British press have said, it's as if he's had a "charisma bypass" because he's all business. I'd bet the tone is set by Merritt's obvious irritation at losing to Wariner in regular fashion and this is creating a lot of tension. Sometimes it seems that if Merritt and Wariner were in a role reversal, we'd hear about Wariner being a sore loser on top of him being a "trash talker" because he says his tormentor is "beatable" and so on.
George.P wrote:There has been extreme reluctance here to post anything the least bit negative about JW. But here and there, various snippets of observation can be found suggesting that the All Conquering Hero may be coming down with a mild case of fast-sprinter-itis. Hope I'm wrong.
Actually, Wariner did a bit of showboating and demonstrated some "sprinter-itis" back in 2004 in the prelims at the Olys. He's never, ever been a complete jackass like so many of our 100 meter men. Not by a long shot. However, confidence from some is OK, from others it's apparently verboten. There has also never been a reluctance to criticize Wariner. There have been lots of remarks about how he isn't as good as so-and-so, so-and-so has more talent, it's only strength he has, no speed. He can't do this, he won't ever do that. Lots of that type of talk. Lots. That falls under the realm of criticism. Also the reams of material suggesting he'd better move to the 800. It's likely that if Wariner were black you would read far less of this stuff - if any of it all - and jazzcyclist would stop foaming at the mouth in apparent anger and disgust over a white sprinter doing rather well. Face it, if Wariner ends up being clobbered next year by Merritt and seven other guys and does nothing, he still has 2 gold medals from the Olympics and 4 gold medals from the Worlds. Fairly good competitive record. I doubt any 400 runner is going to match that the next 8 - 10 years.
Merritt is very talented, but I'm not all that sure he's that much better than Wariner at the 200, and I'm also not sure that if he always stays .1 to .3 faster than Wariner over the deuce that it's going to make a big difference in the 400. The pair seem to be fairly evenly matched in terms of age, although Wariner looked less physically mature as a high schooler and his first couple of years of college than Merritt at the same age. If Wariner had never taken up track, I doubt Merritt would be running the 400 as quickly as he is right now. Wariner has a different mindset than others, just like MJ, Coe in his heyday and others who feel they are the one to push the "barriers" farther or that they are the one who will take down records that others wouldn't consider challenging. Runners like this will make everyone chase them to new levels. While others have the physical ability, not all have the mindset to go "out there".
I have to wonder "how far" some runners will now be willing to go to knock Wariner off.
It's also a fact that a certain percentage of fans and athletes do not like Wariner because when he came along, there went the neighborhood.
Johnny Walker Red wrote:It's likely that if Wariner were black you would read far less of this stuff - if any of it all - and jazzcyclist would stop foaming at the mouth in apparent anger and disgust over a white sprinter doing rather well.
Point to the post where I brought race or even inferred it into the debate. Where do you detect anger and disgust in any of my posts regarding Wariner? The fact that you would imagine something about me that you have absolutely no evidence to support says a lot more about you than it does about me.
Johnny Walker Red wrote:It's likely that if Wariner were black you would read far less of this stuff - if any of it all - and jazzcyclist would stop foaming at the mouth in apparent anger and disgust over a white sprinter doing rather well.
Point to the post where I brought race or even inferred it into the debate. Where do you detect anger and disgust in any of my posts regarding Wariner? The fact that you would imagine something about me that you have absolutely no evidence to support says a lot more about you than it does about me.
Always take with a grain of salt those comments which contain more words than the number of previous posts by the commenter. I do, and in this case, I have.
your previous posts attributes to me in QUOTES what I NEVER SAID!!..
and as for me doing exactly what you do in speculating.. that is absolutely true, and I was clear to say that you and I are good at it..
Johnny Walker, Some good points. but I find it a bit hard to believe that JW would not benefit from being a little more Allen Johnson-like. That is my own preference, and I have called US sprinters buffoons every time they earned it, and goodness they know how to earn it... There are alot of ways to treat people and I dont think MJ or Coe, when they were athletes, were particularly good at it..... Not the models I would recommend that he follow. ... For 400m guys Pettigrew and Roger Black come to mind as gentlemen.
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George P. wrote:Young Jeremy has a loooonnnggg way to go.
Barring injury, JW will cross the London finish line as the 400 GOAT. Perhaps even earlier.
Agreed...he should have the world record by 2010 if not before!! If he is still around for 2012, a likely 3 Olympic and 4 World Championship gold medals!! Dont think THAT has ever been done yet has it?!?
dakota wrote:It's folly to start handing medals out for five years from now, especially when so many 400m champions have been aged 19-22.
ditto.
I just heard one of the quotes by Merritt and he effectively discounted the age differences by pointing out that "we are all doing the same things"... Question: Does this mean that among the 400m coaches there is very very little variation in how they train the athletes?
If so then we can say that all are on the Hart system, can we not?
paulthefan wrote:I just heard one of the quotes by Merritt and he effectively discounted the age differences by pointing out that "we are all doing the same things"... Question: Does this mean that among the 400m coaches there is very very little variation in how they train the athletes?
If so then we can say that all are on the Hart system, can we not?
No, I don't think that's what Merritt meant, and no, everyone's not on the Hart system. (If that's all Hart's coaching amounted to, he could just write a book and retire to Florida.)
Merritt meant pretty much what Alan Webb meant not to long ago, talking about running. (It seemed pretty banal, pretty obvious to me at the time and I failed to copy it down; but it's actually pretty profound.) Webb said there's nothing complicated about what runners do, including himself. They take a stride, then they take another stride. There's no magic formula for doing that; everybody does it, but some do it better than others.
Gosh, it seems like only yesterday that American visitors to these boards were searching out and celebrating the up-and-comers. Now, "we" have crowned our king and queen, along with a handful of princes and princesses -- and that, pretty much, is that (or so it appears). Have "we" become a complacent bunch of status quo stand-patters? I hope not.
paulthefan is a gentleman... but go through the math and see how high the probability of him avoiding even just a mildly serious injury has to be to get the number above 1/8..... not even accounting for the possibility that some one gets faster than him... gosh those are two independent processes that I would be careful not to bet against.
He is a six sigma talent.. but there are still quite a few of those out there and some of them will be 24 in London.
I am a big fan of 'out of the woodwork' new stars. We need them and we get them (Gay, after Gatlin's demise; Dix and Payne this year), so I hope there is someone new to challenge him. (Nellum?) But I just don't see it happening because of the big lead he's put up in times and experience. Someone could get to 43.50, but then JW will be at 43.20.
Please allow me to once again bring forth a perfect blend of wisdom and prognostication!
Mike67 wrote:I say........................................................................................................................... Merritt will never beat Wariner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As a matter of fact, Wariner will not be beaten in a contested 400 meter dash until at least 2013(And that's a big maybe). This is "The Man" and he will rule this event with an iron fist! Before his career is over, his dominance of the event will bring tremendous noteriety to himself and this great sport. Sit back and enjoy the next 7 - 10 years, as you'll not see this again in your lifetimes!
Mike67 wrote: Merritt will never beat Wariner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
At 36 exclamation marks, I was still unconvinced.
At 49 exclamation marks, I was starting to come around.
At 66 exclamation marks, I was almost there.
At 83 exclamation marks, I was a TRUE BELIEVER!!
tafnut wrote:I am a big fan of 'out of the woodwork' new stars. We need them and we get them (Gay, after Gatlin's demise; Dix and Payne this year), so I hope there is someone new to challenge him. (Nellum?) But I just don't see it happening because of the big lead he's put up in times and experience. Someone could get to 43.50, but then JW will be at 43.20.
This reminds me of a Bob Kennedy interview from a few years ago. In 1994, Kennedy predicted that he would join the sub-13 club within two years. At the time, the club only had one member, world record holder Saïd Aouita. In 1996, not only did Kennedy join the sub-13 club, but he ran faster than Aouita's time of 12:58.39. But by that time six or seven other guys had also joined the club and Haile Gebrselassie had lowered the record to 12:44.39.
Mike67 wrote: Merritt will never beat Wariner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
At 36 exclamation marks, I was still unconvinced. At 49 exclamation marks, I was starting to come around. At 66 exclamation marks, I was almost there. At 83 exclamation marks, I was a TRUE BELIEVER!!
Actually taffy there is 68 total exclamation points there.
jazzcyclist wrote:This reminds me of a Bob Kennedy interview from a few years ago. In 1994, Kennedy predicted that he would join the sub-13 club within two years. At the time, the club only had one member, world record holder Saïd Aouita. In 1996, not only did Kennedy join the sub-13 club, but he ran faster than Aouita's time of 12:58.39. But by that time six or seven other guys had also joined the club and Haile Gebrselassie had lowered the record to 12:44.39.
Very neat piece of history.
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George P. wrote:Always take with a grain of salt those comments which contain more words than the number of previous posts by the commenter. I do, and in this case, I have.
Nah, I'll take with a grain of salt posts that avoid staying on point. We have a number of people touchy about Wariner's success, and jazzcyclist is definitely one of them. Don't worry, one day he'll stop improving, he'll get old and/or faster runners will come along. That's the way it always works.
Johnny Walker Red wrote:We have a number of people touchy about Wariner's success, and jazzcyclist is definitely one of them..
I assume that the reason you didn't answer the questions I asked you in my earlier post is because you can't. You are the epitome of the word "paranoid".
I can certainly sympathize with malmo here but also with tafnut, who like me is not an experienced bettor.
Id like to ask another question that was not fully explored regarding Wariner's 43.45, .. after watching the video a few times and seeing that stiff breeze I began to wonder what the 43.45 would be worth on a still night invitational with no rounds..... I suspect that our boywonder is very very much at WR fitness as we speak.
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And with that, the Great Malmo-Tafnut Showdown ends with a whimper not a buck. Too bad malmo, I think you were getting phenomenal odds. I'm thinking gh would have put the odds closer to 50-1, placing the whole thing into historical perspective.
Oh well, I think I made a point here (what the heck it was, I'll never know!).
I guess I'm going to have to come up with another retirement strategy!
paulthefan wrote:I can certainly sympathize with malmo here but also with tafnut, who like me is not an experienced bettor. Id like to ask another question that was not fully explored regarding Wariner's 43.45, .. after watching the video a few times and seeing that stiff breeze I began to wonder what the 43.45 would be worth on a still night invitational with no rounds..... I suspect that our boywonder is very very much at WR fitness as we speak.
opinions on what the 43.45 is worth on a calm night with no rounds?
My opinion is that JW's 43.45 (with all conditions removed) equals 43.45, no more, no less.
JMHO, I think the whole process of equating a time to a "possible" time under different conditions is getting ridiculous.
Shall we go back to all the World Top 100 Performances in each event, and
equate them to some other theoretical performance, or shall we just enjoy them for what they were, on the day? I know my preference.
rasb wrote:My opinion is that JW's 43.45 (with all conditions removed) equals 43.45, no more, no less.
I don't actually fully agree with that - there are circumstances (altitude) that clearly aid a runner, and other circumstances (cold, rainy, windy) that hinder performance, but in THIS particular circumstance I do NOT think we can say he could have run faster. The rounds may have actually helped him prepare, since he was able to use them as unpressured 'warm-ups'. And the wind wasn't that bad, so whatever he lost against it, was gained with it. In this case 43.45 = 43.45.
paulthefan wrote:I can certainly sympathize with malmo here but also with tafnut, who like me is not an experienced bettor. Id like to ask another question that was not fully explored regarding Wariner's 43.45, .. after watching the video a few times and seeing that stiff breeze I began to wonder what the 43.45 would be worth on a still night invitational with no rounds..... I suspect that our boywonder is very very much at WR fitness as we speak.
opinions on what the 43.45 is worth on a calm night with no rounds?
Let's lay the myth of a "stiff breeze" to rest. The w200 and m110H are on either side of the 400 and each had a 1.7 wind, which is hardly stiff. And in any case, it would have been TAILWIND.
Now let's go over to the other side of the stadium and check out the concurrent women's TJ. Of 11 readings taken in teh last 2 rounds (late in the evening) only 2 of them are above 1.0. AND.... wait for it.... they're all tailwinds, but they were running opposite to straightaway, meaning that Wariner also had a tailwind down the backstretch. If anything, the race has wind aid!
Johnny Walker Red wrote:After several races the last couple of seasons Wariner has gone to shake Merritt's hand and Merritt looks like he's being handed dog turds (and Merritt isn't the only Yank sprinter who has reacted this way to Wariner, post race).
How many people do you see showing enthusiasm for second place especially if deep down they thought they could win ? For petes sake being dissapointed is human.
has also never been a reluctance to criticize Wariner. There have been lots of remarks about how he isn't as good as so-and-so, so-and-so has more talent, it's only strength he has, no speed. He can't do this, he won't ever do that. Lots of that type of talk. Lots. That falls under the realm of criticism
I am always amused and amazed at the paranoia exhibited by some regarding their fav athletes. As some one pointed out, this is a forum not a fan club. et al. I have seen athletes of every nationality and shade critisized here. Borzakovsky, X-man, Merritt etc. Theres no room for psycophancy. There are many who pride themselves in analyszing an athletes weakness. Surely you cant begrudge them that ?
The paranoia surrounding the criticism of Wariner by some here is mind boggling. Yes I do believe that Wariner has not shown pure footspeed yet. His strength is clearly his endurance. Which brings me to my next point................
Also the reams of material suggesting he'd better move to the 800.
Watching Wariner finish over the last 50m, it is only natural that a T&F fan would wonder what he can do in the 800m. Can he do a 1:43. ? One can only wonder.
It's likely that if Wariner were black you would read far less of this stuff - if any of it all - and jazzcyclist would stop foaming at the mouth in apparent anger and disgust over a white sprinter doing rather well.
How did you reach that conclusion ? Seems like more paranoid delusions on your part.
Finally Merritt has no business saying Wariner is unbeatable. As soon as he does that, he might as well hung up his spikes. Nobody really knows which of these 2 athletes has greater upside. AFAIK, MJ never really hit his stride until he was in his late 20s. By that time, Watts et al had faded into obscurity. Wariner looks like an irresistible force now. But who knows what will happen by 2012 ? But whatever happens is fine by me. Personally I dont root for individual athletes.
ok while we are assuming things lets try to picture this.
Time machine would bring 2007 summer shape Warriner in Atlanta 1996 Oly final in the 400m in the lane in front of MJ. What could have happened?:)
MJ getting walked down, or the other way around?It would clearly be A CLOSE race whoever wins it will be by 0.20 of a seond or less in my opinion:) I also wouldn`t be suprized one of them would choke and give up at the 200-300m territory
I do, and in this case, I have.
We have a number of people touchy about Wariner's success, and jazzcyclist is definitely one of them. Don't worry, one day he'll stop improving, he'll get old and/or faster runners will come along. That's the way it always works.