This year, a lot of my curiosity has been satiated by the willingness of runners to fully explore their potential across a broad range of distances while in mid-season form. We know that Sanya Richards could be a force in the 100 if she chose to, but we also know that Allison Felix is seemingly the one person who can challenge in the 400. A 10.03 100 debut by Usain Bolt indicates he has medal potential at that distance. We found out that Angelo Taylor can be just as competitive without hurdles as with hurdles, but that Bershawn Jackson can't. We know that Jeremy Wariner will never be a serious threat at the 200 and by logic the 100, despite MJ's and Clyde Hart's prognostications. Based on the results of his 100 and 400 attempts, Wallace Spearmon will probably never contend for medals at any distance other than the 200.
Here's what else I'd like to see:
1) Tyson Gay and Asafa Powell in the 400
2) Torri Edwards and Veronica Campbell in the 400
3) Natasha Hastings in the 100 and 200 while in sub-50 form
4) Jeremy Wariner in the 800
I'd like to see shotputters run the 100. It was said that Geoff Capes could run 10.5 seconds. It would be interesting to see just how fast these dudes really are.
How about pole vaulters running the 100m? We've all heard of Bubka's speed. Let's have an all-comers pole vault race. Make it entertaining by making them run with the pole.
Daisy wrote:I'd like to see shotputters run the 100. It was said that Geoff Capes could run 10.5 seconds. It would be interesting to see just how fast these dudes really are.
The Big O, Brian Oldfield, was a mean motoring machine. I think I remember him on the old 'Superstars' series and he came out of the start like a shot!
I really would LOVE to see a World Relays Championship, with a 4x8, SMR and DMR!!!
Dietmar239 wrote:How about pole vaulters running the 100m? We've all heard of Bubka's speed. Let's have an all-comers pole vault race. Make it entertaining by making them run with the pole.
I've often wondered what kind of 100 speed Isinbayeva has. Jenski vs Isi in the 100 would be interesting.
tafnut wrote:The Big O, Brian Oldfield, was a mean motoring machine. I think I remember him on the old 'Superstars' series and he came out of the start like a shot!
I saw him in the stands at the NCAAs recently. Looks like his legs are shot (although I would not say that to his face – he still looks like he could crush me like a little tiny bug without even trying).
Dietmar239 wrote:How about pole vaulters running the 100m? We've all heard of Bubka's speed. Let's have an all-comers pole vault race. Make it entertaining by making them run with the pole.
I've often wondered what kind of 100 speed Isinbayeva has. Jenski vs Isi in the 100 would be interesting.
Jenn looks faster and is certainly lots bigger (more powerful looking).
tafnut wrote:The Big O, Brian Oldfield, was a mean motoring machine. I think I remember him on the old 'Superstars' series and he came out of the start like a shot!
I saw him in the stands at the NCAAs recently. Looks like his legs are shot.
I didn't see him at this year's NCAA's, but I did see him at some meet a couple of years ago, and IIRC he was walking with a cane. I think it was his knees that were the problem, but in any event it was sad to see this hulk of a guy having trouble walking.
gm wrote:and if I ever have to watch another 4x1500 I shall injure myself on purpose
I wouldn't do anything quite that drastic, but you're right. The ones I've seen are excruciatingly dull, and not only because they're hardly ever competitive.
joeltetreault wrote: * Dibaba and Defar run a 1500
What about Dibaba and Defar in the 400. Do you think they're capable of 52.xx? Apparantly that qualifies you for a lane in Europe's A-list meets these days.
i'd guestimate most of elite gals over 800m have ~ 52s speed
logically, if diby/defar had 52s speed & their known virtually unmatched endurance, they'd smash anything the top 800 gals are currently running
What about Jearl Miles Clark? Not only did she have 49.40 open 400 speed, but even after she moved up to the 800 with all of endurance training that goes along with it, she was still able to split 49s on relays. Anyway, if you're right and they have 3:55 potential, shouldn't they also be competitive in the 800?
i'd guestimate most of elite gals over 800m have ~ 52s speed
logically, if diby/defar had 52s speed & their known virtually unmatched endurance, they'd smash anything the top 800 gals are currently running
What about Jearl Miles Clark? Not only did she have 49.40 open 400 speed, but even after she moved up to the 800 with all of endurance training that goes along with it, she was still able to split 49s on relays. Anyway, if you're right and they have 3:55 potential, shouldn't they also be competitive in the 800?
That is a really bizarre comparison to make! Miles Clark moved up from 400m whilst you are debating how fast Defar and Dibaba will run moving down from 3000m to 5000m!
Comparing Miles-Clark to Defar and Dibaba will give no feasible answer whatsoever!
Daisy wrote:I'd like to see shotputters run the 100. It was said that Geoff Capes could run 10.5 seconds. It would be interesting to see just how fast these dudes really are.
Whoa there........100 yards.........way too many heart attacks. Cut the race to 40 yards and save some lives.
eldrick wrote:actually, 55s with 14'15 gives interesting results :
~ 1'57.4 !, 3'52.6 !!!, 5'17.7, 8'12.7, 30'02.0
they maybe even capable of approaching some of those chinese times
I don't think anyone is, those times are even more ridiculous than Griffith-Joyner's records.
But I think that Defar and T. Dibaba are capable of running a ~ 52, 53, if you look at their last rounds, especially Defar, it might not be that much of a stretch.
jazzcyclist wrote: Anyway, if you're right and they have 3:55 potential, shouldn't they also be competitive in the 800?
well, just hypothetically, i get a 14'15 runner with
3'55 -> ~ 56.4. 1'59.4, 5'20.2, 8'14.8, 29'52.6
3'56 -> ~ 57.0, 2'00.2, 5'21.2, 8'15.6, 29'48.7
i'd say they were around 2'00-flat
I think it was laspigolaloca who pointed out that your formula gets unreliable at 400m and these stats seem to confirm it - any athlete I've ever known capable of 3:55/8:15 (sample size ~30 off the top of my head) could do sets of 400s in 56 and easily went sub55 in the open 400.
i did point out that 55s maybe more likely for them - it indicates they do have some stunning potential for 1500 ( & even top 3 ability at 800 )
anyhows, i'm happy now with even the 400 times : it gives webb as 47+ current ability & the one that pleased me the most was hicham, who i get as high-47 : he was once asked what his 400 ability & i saw a quote of 48s from his coach :
Well, I've never figured out what Eldy is doing with all his numbers; any explanation in plain English obviously is not to be hoped for. There are highly reliable statistical methods to predict a time (as you people are doing here) over the range in which data points are available. But every student in Stat 102 learns that predicting a time outside the range of data points is quite problematic. One can "project" Asafa Powell's time for the 1500, but don't bet the farm on the results.
Felix probably wasn't in 49.70 shape while she was competing at USATF's in Indy since her primary concern there was the 100 and 200. I presume that since then she's been doing a lot more overdistance work in order to secure a spot on the 4x400 relay. So even if Dibaba and Defar are only in 57s shape today, surely with several weeks of speed work they could knock a few seconds off their 400 times. If the improvement curve for a 200 runner like Felix is that steep once she starts doing strength work, how steep must that curve be for 5000 runners like Dibaba and Defar once they start doing speed work?
Last edited by jazzcyclist on Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Yes, but we've seen Defar and Dibaba do pretty amazing things at the end of longer races--I think enough to show that they could run very good 1500's right now.
i'd assume if they did a lot more speedwork than they currently ( which must be a helluva lot anyway, considering their big kicks ), they might have to sacrifice some of their endurance
i don't doubt the coud improve their 400, but why woud they if their 5k endurance suffers unduly ?
at present, to me, they already look the finished article ( i'd be pretty surprised if defar makes any significant dents in her 14'16wr in the rest of her career ), so i'm not sure if there is much else for them to do, but just get "stronger" with time
