Powell-Wariner Matchup at Pre

[tafnut]

Like, wow, man, awesome! (I think I hang out with teenagers too much)
NOW - the most important question is, TJ, will this be broadcast LIVE??!!

[tandfman]

Yes, according to the USATF web site. TV coverage is 4-6pm Eastern. The Pre web site says the meet starts at 12:30 (Pacific).

[tafnut]

Yes, according to the USATF web site. TV coverage is 4-6pm Eastern. The Pre web site says the meet starts at 12:30 (Pacific).

No DVR for me. My heinie will be in the Lazy-Boy promptly at 4:00! Hey you sponsors - I'm buying whatever you're selling, buddy! Even BEER! (I do, however, reserve the right to pour it directly into the toilet, because I don't feel like just being the middleman!)

[tandfman]

My guess is that they'll be selling more Nike shoes than beer.

[tafnut]

My guess is that they'll be selling more Nike shoes than beer.

Oh, I'm a SUCKER for running shoes - bring it on!

[jazzcyclist]

If Powell and Wariner continue to win their specialty races unchallenged, the 200 could possibly become the glamour event of the men's sprints, especially if X, Spearmon and Gay continue to shake the foundations of Michael Johnson's 19.32.

[eldrick]

"There may have been other 200 fields with more talent," says meet director Tom Jordan

err...

like when ?

[bad hammy]

NOW - the most important question is, TJ, will this be broadcast LIVE??!!

Hey, TOE-man, do you teach your kids to read so selectively??

The Nike Prefontaine Classic will be televised live for two hours on NBC, beginning at 1 p.m. Pacific Time.

[gh]

"There may have been other 200 fields with more talent," says meet director Tom Jordan

err...

like when ?

First time I've EVER heard somebody's promotion of a meet lambasted for being too minimalistic in the bombast!

[tafnut]

NOW - the most important question is, TJ, will this be broadcast LIVE??!!

Hey, TOE-man, do you teach your kids to read so selectively??

The Nike Prefontaine Classic will be televised live for two hours on NBC, beginning at 1 p.m. Pacific Time.

I'm a Speed Reader, not a Power Reader. (clever HJ allusion, free of charge)

In my defense, it's entirely possible that the broadcast window does not include this particular event (which would be, of course, absurd, but we've seen this before!)

[eldrick]

"There may have been other 200 fields with more talent," says meet director Tom Jordan

err...

like when ?

First time I've EVER heard somebody's promotion of a meet lambasted for being too minimalistic in the bombast!

seriously though, i'm hard-pressed to think of a better 200 field in the past ~ 40y

[stallion]

seriously though, i'm hard-pressed to think of a better 200 field in the past ~ 40y

The only obvious ones that come to mind are the ones interminably discussed in a hypothetical scenario concocted by our friend Texas. Due to a certain element of subjectivity and inherent speculation involved regarding the advantage conferred by superior tracks, shoes, training methods, etc., I'm sure a triple digit thread could be launched in order to attempt to reach a never agreed upon consensus on this. Ooops, I'm sorry I mentioned this.

[gh]

"There may have been other 200 fields with more talent," says meet director Tom Jordan

err...

like when ?

First time I've EVER heard somebody's promotion of a meet lambasted for being too minimalistic in the bombast!

seriously though, i'm hard-pressed to think of a better 200 field in the past ~ 40y

Pre
Asafa Powell
Jeremy Wariner
Xavier Carter
Wallace Spearmon
Shawn Crawford
Kelly Willie
Rodney Martin
Chris Williams

Lausanne last year
Carter
Gay
Bolt
Spearmon
Merritt
Obikwelu
Vaden
Osovnikar

Given that Powell and Wariner are huge names in other events (but not real factors here yet) and Crawford is shadow of former self, I think I'd vote for the Lausanne field, hands down, from this point in history.

[tandfman]

The 200 at the 1969 Martin Luther King meet included the three 1968 OG medalists (Tommie Smith, Peter Norman, and John Carlos), as well as Lee Evans and Ronnie Ray Smith. I forget who else was in the race. Carlos won.

[stallion]

But gh, I'd posit that Asafa is a legitimate threat to triumph here, even if not the favorite. I'd predict that Jeremy is going to have a tough time finishing better than fourth.

[gh]

and Wariner wouldn't have finished better than 6th in Lausanne, which is why I'm saying that was a better field.

As for who gets "favorite" status in Eugene, I never assign such in a close 200 until I see the lane assignments.

[eldrick]

But gh, I'd posit that Asafa is a legitimate threat to triumph here, even if not the favorite. I'd predict that Jeremy is going to have a tough time finishing better than fourth.

i'd go further than that - if safa is 100% fit, i'd make him favorite

[stallion]

and Wariner wouldn't have finished better than 6th in Lausanne, which is why I'm saying that was a better field.

I am not arguing the merits of your assessment of the respective fields, simply responding to your remark about Asafa and Jeremy not being real players here. Jeremy is not, but I contend Asafa is.

[bad hammy]

i'd go further than that - if safa is 100% fit, i'd make him favorite

I don't buy that until I see it. Powell has never run within .22 of what X, Gay and Spearmon did just last year.

[jammin]

I saw on Jamaican TV last year Asafa's 19.90 at 200m at the Jamaica Championships.

He ran the curve extremely conservative and then he motored down the straight away and then shut it downf 10 meters before the line finishing line.

If he can run a blazing curve like Gay can, I have no doubt that Asafa can run a brilliant time at 200m.

Don't forget though, he main goal is the 100m in Osaka. The 200m is only "brawta"(or extras) as Jamaicans would say.

[jammin]

i'd go further than that - if safa is 100% fit, i'd make him favorite

I don't buy that until I see it. Powell has never run within .22 of what X, Gay and Spearmon did just last year.

Powell has never focussed on the 200m before. He has great potential and he has never run in a competitvely deep 200m as the other guys.

Can't really tell what will happen until the day comes and he runs.

Hold tight.

[EPelle]

He ran the curve extremely conservative and then he motored down the straight away and then shut it downf 10 meters before the line finishing line.

You recall why he ran the curve "extremely conservative"? The same reason he:ll have to do the same in Eugene -- return from injury.

[bad hammy]

He ran the curve extremely conservative and then he motored down the straight away and then shut it downf 10 meters before the line finishing line.

You recall why he ran the curve "extremely conservative"? The same reason he:ll have to do the same in Eugene -- return from injury.

Always the possibility of rain at Pre too . . .

[gh]

and Wariner wouldn't have finished better than 6th in Lausanne, which is why I'm saying that was a better field.

I am not arguing the merits of your assessment of the respective fields, simply responding to your remark about Asafa and Jeremy not being real players here. Jeremy is not, but I contend Asafa is.

not to parse the meanings too far, but my assessment of the value of the fields was based on what has been done in the 200, not what they've done elsewhere, or what we think they might do in Eugene. I was merely evaluating the fields in real-time terms. So neither Powell nor Wariner "real players" in that sense.

I most definitely think Powell will be a player in the Pre race itself.

[jammin]

He ran the curve extremely conservative and then he motored down the straight away and then shut it downf 10 meters before the line finishing line.

You recall why he ran the curve "extremely conservative"? The same reason he:ll have to do the same in Eugene -- return from injury.

Apparently in 2005, Asafa got a “slight groin injury” while running the 200m at the Felix Sanchez meet in the Dominican Republic.

There has been reports(not sure how true) that since he is not that familiar in running the 200m, he used to run the bend “too fast” and that can result in groin issues.

I have noticed that both him and Sherone Simpson run the curve much too conservative especially Sherone. Maybe there are listening to their coach too much.

Last year, Sherone was the fastest woman in the world at both 100 and 200m. At the WAF, Sherone was sixth place at the 100m mark and ended up third in the 200m. The fastest man or woman in the world should not be down so much at the 100m.
She feared better in London but had to come from behind to beat Sanya Richards.

In today’s competitive environment, you are not going to catch a Allyson Felix from behind so you have to be leading at 100m and motor down the straight.

Their coach need to help them improve dramatically their curve running/confidence around the bend. Gay has always done a great job at this, Veronica did an excellent job at the 2004 Olympics beating Felix.. No surprise that they both have the same coach.

[26mi235]

He ran the curve extremely conservative and then he motored down the straight away and then shut it downf 10 meters before the line finishing line.

You recall why he ran the curve "extremely conservative"? The same reason he:ll have to do the same in Eugene -- return from injury.

Always the possibility of rain at Pre too . . .

The rain occurs mainly in the winter and in later fall and earlier spring. These are the daily 'norms' for rainfall, by date, in hundredths of an inch.

Total Precipitation (Hundreths of an Inch)
DAY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 MONTH
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JAN 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 765
FEB 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 635
MAR 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 580
APR 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 366
MAY 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 266
JUN 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 153
JUL 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 64
AUG 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 99
SEP 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 154
OCT 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 335
NOV 21 22 23 23 24 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 30 30 844
DEC 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 829

[gh]

Pre
Asafa Powell
Jeremy Wariner
Xavier Carter
Wallace Spearmon
Shawn Crawford
Kelly Willie
Rodney Martin
Chris Williams

Lausanne last year
Carter
Gay
Bolt
Spearmon
Merritt
Obikwelu
Vaden
Osovnikar

Let me add this to the mix. You could end up with a USATF final with these guys in the 8 lanes (alpha):

Carter
Crawford
Dix
Gay
Merritt
Spearmon
Wariner
Willie

Know what that means? It means that last year's No. 8 World Ranker, Martin, doesn't make it!

[eldrick]

i'd go further than that - if safa is 100% fit, i'd make him favorite

I don't buy that until I see it. Powell has never run within .22 of what X, Gay and Spearmon did just last year.

jammin's post summed it up - i have to hold my hand-up : 19.90 off a "forced" slow curve & easing up 10m from line is what i've heard from other sources - i can't argue with that - he can run 19.5 if he pushed harder

interestingly, i got a rough relationship of :

200 time = ( 2*100 split ) - 0.95

which indicates, that the "forced" slow curve is advantageous to safa : a slower curve, allows you to charge the stretch harder ( look at tyson who finishes the 100 like a runaway truck, but has often got flattened in the stretch by x-man, wally & bolt ( admittedly finishing strength in a 100 means very little with finishing strength in the 200, but there must be a smidgen of correlation ?! ) )

tyson is running the curve too hard at ~ 10.15 - that's 19.35 pace - no wonder he gets flattened by the other guys in the stretch, even though he hangs on for a mid-19.6

an "ideal" curve for 19.5 - 19.6 imho is : 10.22 - 10.27

safa i'd guess is forcing himself to run this slow because of his groin & i think it actually gives him a better chance of running a faster time than attempting to follow tyson step-for-step on the curve

[eldrick]

In today’s competitive environment, you are not going to catch a Allyson Felix from behind so you have to be leading at 100m and motor down the straight

nope

if you can run 22.00 into a wind - you certainly have good curve running in you

you are focusing too much on felix, when it shoud be more felix focusing on sherone

i'd simply reckon sherone ran too wide on that curve in london, added 1.5 - 2.0m to it & ended up ~ 0.2s too slow on her ideal curve time ( which for say, a 21.90 gal, shoud be ~ 11.43 )

if you can dig up sherone's 100m split that race, we'd have some useful info

[bad hammy]

Always the possibility of rain at Pre too . . .

The rain occurs mainly in the winter and in later fall and earlier spring . . .

Last year was my second Pre - it rained pretty darn hard there for a while. Rained on my first Pre back in the 80s too.

[jazzcyclist]

tyson is running the curve too hard at ~ 10.15 - that's 19.35 pace - no wonder he gets flattened by the other guys in the stretch, even though he hangs on for a mid-19.6

an "ideal" curve for 19.5 - 19.6 imho is : 10.22 - 10.27

safa i'd guess is forcing himself to run this slow because of his groin & i think it actually gives him a better chance of running a faster time than attempting to follow tyson step-for-step on the curve

This seems like a revolutionary idea. I've always been told that there was no conservation of energy in the optimum 200. Go all out in the curve and relax the straight. Now, you seem to be saying that you should save a little bit in the curve. Maybe you're right. In the 1996 Olympic Final, Frankie Fredricks went out in 10.14. Do you believe he would have gone faster than 19.68 if he had gone out in 10.24?

[gh]

I can see where there might be--again treading on my thin-physics ice--some advantage to not running curve absolutely hard as possible. Particularly if you're tall.

Might there come a point whereby running harder would only be wasted energy that would force your energy outwards rather than in the direction desired, and you'd have to use even more energy fighting that? Keep that in balance, and you've got a few more cells left to fire in the straight?

That make any sense?

[tafnut]

Let's Kentucky Derby this thing (actually the Preakness would be a better match here, I guess). Here's the current line (based on what the bettors are telling me)

Asafa Powell - 2:1
Xavier Carter - 3:1
Wallace Spearmon - 4:1
Shawn Crawford - 8:1
Jeremy Wariner- 10:1
Kelly Willie - 50:1
Chris Williams - 50:1
Rodney Martin - 100:1

I'm gonna bet on Spearmon, primarily because the 200 takes some seasonal experience to run well and Spearmon's got it. He's also immensely talented!!

Whoya betting on?

[gh]

anybody who bets before seeing lane assignments deserves to loses their shirt.

[eldrick]

anybody who bets before seeing lane assignments deserves to loses their shirt.

safa is biggest draw in the sport ( well, he shoud be ! )

he gets any lane he wants

[tafnut]

anybody who bets before seeing lane assignments deserves to loses their shirt.

I look OK without my shirt:


besides - other than the obvious Lane 1 detriment, I think Spearmon can win in 2-8 (9?).

[bad hammy]

safa is biggest draw in the sport

Is he? I don't see it that way . . .

[tafnut]

safa is biggest draw in the sport

Is he? I don't see it that way . . .

Right now X is hottest, followed by JW, then AP.

[eldrick]

tyson is running the curve too hard at ~ 10.15 - that's 19.35 pace - no wonder he gets flattened by the other guys in the stretch, even though he hangs on for a mid-19.6

an "ideal" curve for 19.5 - 19.6 imho is : 10.22 - 10.27

safa i'd guess is forcing himself to run this slow because of his groin & i think it actually gives him a better chance of running a faster time than attempting to follow tyson step-for-step on the curve

This seems like a revolutionary idea. I've always been told that there was no conservation of energy in the optimum 200. Go all out in the curve and relax the straight. Now, you seem to be saying that you should save a little bit in the curve. Maybe you're right. In the 1996 Olympic Final, Frankie Fredricks went out in 10.14. Do you believe he would have gone faster than 19.68 if he had gone out in 10.24?

rationale is just over on the other thread :

http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... 573#352573

( usually dismissed as eldrick crap )

it was from "1st principles" & i admit it looked stodgy looking at 19.5 - 20.0 level, but i gained some confidence when i got to 19.30 & moreso when i read mennisco's splits for 21.34

from 2/7 ago , i do think frankie & ato commited suicide by following mj - he ran 10.12 & coud run 19.3+, but they coudn't - adrenaline maybe, forced them to keep up with him on the bend & they suffered

i always thought that mj's straight was so damn superior to his curve it was beyond comparison
( because his 10.12 was only marginally superior to the 10.18 & 10.22 in that race & tyson who ran ~ 10.14 in lausanne ), but now i'm thinking differently :

his 10.12 was in keeping with the following 9.20

it's just that 200 runners that day & since believe that they can ALL do 10.1+ & get "lucky" in the stretch

bottom line:

don't go < 10.2 unless you believe you can run < 19.45