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U.S. w4x4 For Osaka [split]
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The 4x4 should be interesting. They have 2 who are about .5 faster than our (not doing so well at this time Trotter and Hastings), and we have 2 who are 1 second faster than their 2 slowest. and heir team won't have run all those 100's and 200's! Could be barn burner if the Russkies can get up by 10m by half way!
The US can use a number of runners (Wineberg you do not list, and the 400h girls might be worth a stick to hold rather than jump over). I must say, 3 seconds indicates a stunning loss of form, can you imagine what people would be saying if JW ran 46-47 without hurdles?
I don't think there's much doubt now that Wineberg is on the finals 4x400(barring a major collapse in the open 400).
The question now becomes will Dr. Jekyll or Ms. Hyde show up in the form of the US champ in Osaka, and Hastings retreat from her PR in June is expected after how long her season has been. Lots of questions still to be answered for that last spot, but I'll take a shot with my best coaching instincts. Trotter/Hastings - Felix - Wineberg - Richards
Based solely on my "feel" for past relay choosings, one might expect to see a team of Hastings-Trotter-Felix-Richards, with Wineberg restricted to prelim duty.
Just a feel! Have had no discussions with anybody in a position of power (or even weakness, come to think of it).
Trotter may not make it, altho she has certainly earned the right to be there.
Always good to put a 52(twice now)ahead of a 50-point. 
That being said, the open 400 will count for alot. If Wineberg beats Hastings and/or Trotter again, she's in. Her times are going back down again, as planned, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her PR.
I would think that Richards and Felix are definitely on the 4x400 final. The other 2 legs will probably be determined by how Trotter, Hastings, and Wineberg run in the open 400. If Trotter makes it to the final, she will definitely be on it. It will then come down to who does the best between Hastings and Wineberg. But based upon how Trotter is running, that is a big "IF".
Here's hoping she makes it easy for them to choose!
I agree with GH
Trotter may not be doing well now...but she's been relay duty for years now, and always does pretty well when push comes to shove. And I want to think that Hastings has enough left in her. I think Wineburg running prelims makes sense if they are all about the same... obviously, if DeeDee runs 52. at WC, she's out...but I have a feeling that Trotter and Hastings will rise to the occasion.
I might also add that Felix will have her plate full in Osaka. Looking at the schedule, she could only have 1 day off, given she's successful in her attempt in the 100m. Will she or her camp recommend dropping it?
And what about the short relay? Would the coaches have her go both rounds on Day 8 - particularly with short recovery from Day 7's 200 final? Memory serves that they won in Helsinki with the same quartet throughout. Maybe not. And then Day 9 - 4x400m final. Heaven help USA makes it to the final this year! I can think of a few giants (Florence, Gwen and Marion) who have handled that duty. If accomplished successfully, I would think it to be a major feat. And if she has to do some major rolling up on those relays... I would think that the other three will be depended upon in large order. Like Henderson in '04, someone else (other than Richards) might need to show something really special.
Wineberg, Trotter and Hastings will all get relay medals if history is any guide. The U.S. will probably use two alternates in the heats. The real question is who will run in the final and have the honor of standing on the medal stand while The Star Spangled Banner is playing.
It's not only going to come down to who is in the team, but what order they run in. I think it would be a mistake if the US put Hastings and Trotter on the first two legs and Felix and Richards on 3rd and 4th. Usually 3rd leg is for the inexperienced, but as Felix and Richards are the two fastest they should go on 2nd and 4th, possibly even with Richards on 2nd because of her fast 200m. They risk the danger of being a few meters behind Russia after 2 legs otherwise.
This, ofcourse, depends on Russia's runing order, as they have made bad choices in the past. If the Russians are in good form - their champs certainly suggest they are peaking late and at the right time - then it could be a great battle.
FROM DN GALAN w400 thread:
Somewhere between 3:17 and 3:18 may turn out to be what they run, BUT consider these little factoids: The record of 3:15.17 is held the Soviet gals with Olga Nazarova and Bryzgina (both ran 47.x legs) from the '88 games, but the American Record and #2 all time (3:15.51) was run in the same race with the team of D. Hill, D. Dixon, Brisco and Flo-Jo. Their PBs and (relay leg in that OG final) were: Brisco ------- 48.83 (48.44) D. Dixon ---- 49.84 (49.17) D. Hill ------- 49.87 (49.82 on opening leg from blocks) Flo-jo --------???? (48.08 ) Compare those PBs with these: Sanya ------ 48.70 Dee Dee --- 49.64 A. Felix ----- 49.70 Hastings --- 49.84 And who's to say they won't be running around or better than their PBs? This isn't going to be an April warm-up race at the Krispy Kreme Podunk Relays. This is, in fact, the World Championships, one of the biggest races in their lives, something they will have been peaking for over the past two years and apparently being run on a greased lightning track with the whole world watching them live trying to make history. So why wouldn't they be running PB type times?
Let's see how they race individually at the Games. History has shown the average women's relay split to be 0.8 faster than their individual performance at the same games.
If Trotter and Hastings can get down to 50.0 in the individual, and Richards sub 49 form, then in theory we could be looking at a fast time in the relay. It's then down to Felix to run a sub 49 leg. But will Trotter and Hastings actually get back down to 50.0 form? I dont see them both doing it. Will Felix run that fast with her inexperience, or can she do a Gwen Torrance ala 1993? Say she's on leg three, just ahead of Russia maybe, no other athletes to pace herself on....she could quite easily do a 50.0 leg. For her to run a 48+ she'll probably need another fast athlete around her to run off. She certainly paced herself off Richards in London (I didnt get to see Stockholm w400) At present, judging by Trotter's drop in form and assuming she's in the team, I doubt we'll see a super fast time, but a 3:18 is definately still possible if they get it right.
Look at the Stuttgart splits and the womens' PRs [bracketed, and Malone's had to be even slower at the time] 3:16.71 Gwen Torrence ----------49.0 [49.64] Maicel Malone ------------49.4 [PR 50.05 from '94] Natasha Kaiser-Brown--49.48 [50.17] Jearl Miles-Clark-----------48.78 [49.40] Last edited by Mennisco on Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Yes, it's true, the US women did run fast in 1993 compared to their individual PBs, as they did in 1988. The point is they didn't do the same in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004 or 2005. So why is this the year to break that series?
After the Stockholm race, it looks more likely that Trotter may end up relegated to the heats. How can one go from 49.64 to barely hanging on to 52.x? Either she peaked for the U.S. Championship, or something else (including an injury) is amiss here. Once more, if there is even a slight chance that a WR (3:15.17) is within their grasp, they are even more likely to go with Wineberg, Hastings, Felix and Richards. Certainly, 3:18.00 is not out of the question for those 4. The shape that Trotter is in right now (assuming she isn't sandbagging it), she might not make it to the semis.
I don't think Trotter is sandbagging. I think she just had a really bad race. It seems as though she has forgotten how she got her PR of 49.64 by going out hard. Now she seems to be going out slower than ever and if she does that at WCs she will find herself out of the races very quickly.
Except that she didn't go out particularly hard in Indy... she ran 23.9 (compared to 23.3 for Richards, 23.5 for Hastings), exactly the same as she did when she ran 50.28 at the OT in '04 for example. Her forte is second-half strength.
I really doubt that a 49.70 runner in the open 400 is going to split 50 on a relay leg at a WC. Felix ran the 2nd leg at the Penn Relays this year back in the latter part of April. This is the description from the USATF website: Allyson Felix displayed impressive range on the day, providing the critical leg in the AT&T women's 4x400m relay. After a first leg by Mary Wineberg that saw USA Red holding the lead by just under a second, Allyson Felix put Team USA Red commandingly in the lead by nearly 30 meters, unofficially splitting sub-50 for her 400m effort. You could see nothing but Red from then on as Team USA remained undefeated in this race in the eight-year history of USA vs. The World. Mary Wineberg, Felix, Moushaumi Robinson and Debbi Dunn together ran 3:24.70 to win emphatically over Jamaica in second (3:29.84) and Russia in third (3:30.43). I believe the T&F folks put her split at 50.00. So I would have to say that your assessment that Felix "could quite easily do a 50.0 leg" is not legitimate. I might add that she split 50.2 (Texas Relays) and 50.7 (Penn Relays) for the USA team back in 2004. I think Felix has improved since 2004 and also since April of 2007. Felix might lack experience in running the 4x400 at a WC or the Olympics, but do you really think that someone who has run in the Olympics at 18 and is running in her 3 World Championship at age 21 is going to falter due to inexperience?
In response.. 1. Why shouldnt a 49.7 runner do a 50.0 leg? Lot's of runners run relay splits slower than their inidividual PBs. 2. So, she did a 50.0 in April and you say "your assessment that Felix 'could easily do a 50.0 leg' is not legitimate?" 
3. She's inexperienced running 4x4's at a global meet. Fact. But, as I said in my post, she could also do a super fast leg. My point is she is less experienced that other 400m girls in this event, so there is a possibility that she could get the pacing wrong, just as she could do a super fast leg.
You usually only lose a bit if you go out a bit easy, poor times result the last 50m of a too-fast race. Allyson tends to go out modestly, even though she is a 200m gal. Adjsuting for unknown conditions, I bet she runs closer to 49.0 than 50.0,
Well, not always, I've seen many athlete, while tracking another athlete, either try and take over on the 2nd curve but not get past because they're blocked, or be too tentative over the first 200m, so end up only getting to kick well into the straight - too late! But, she definately has the ability to run close to 49.0, of course. I'm interested to see what she actually enters - 100, 200 4x1 and 4x4? If both relays will she do heats and finals for both or all of the 4x1 but just the final of the 4x4? She could be a tad tired by the 4x4 final. I've no doubt Kersee will get her ready though...
I really find it amusing that you are trying to justify the possibility that Felix will run a 50.0 split on the sole basis that she is inexperienced running 4x4's at a global meet. It's laughable that you are going to completely ignore all of her other experience in global meets and all of her other experience in running the 4x400 and try to make it seem that she is not going to know what to do because the race is in a different location against different people. Amazing logic! I am not sure why you are confused about my comment as expressed in your second point. The 50.0 split in April was run after opening a few weeks earlier with a 51.7 in the open 400. Now we are talking about the legitimacy of running a 50.0 split after running a 49.7 in the open 400m. I am confused that you don't see it. I obviously don't know as much about track as you do. I always thought that the relay split of most runners was better than their open time in the 400m. I would think that is especially true for someone who has run sub 50 in the open 400m. But I will take your word that "Lot's of runners run relay splits slower than their inidividual PBs."
No need to get sarcastic.
Re slower splits than PBs, of course most athletes run faster in a relay than individually, but not always and often not by much. Recently: Paris 2003 USA last leg - Sanya Richards 50.28, PB that year 50.58 Russia last leg - Natalya Nazarova 50.93, PB that year 49.78 Athens 2004 USA 3rd leg - Sanya Richards 49.8, PB that year 49.89 USA 4th leg - Monique Hennagan 49.73, PB that year 49.56 Russia 2nd leg - Natalya Nazarova 50.0, PB that year 49.65 Russia 3rd leg - Oleysa Zykina 50.89, SB that year 50.44 (PB 50.15) Helsinki 2005 Russia last leg - Svetlana Pospelova 50.42, PB that year 49.80 GB last leg - Christine Ohuruogu 51.27, SB 50.73 (PB 50.50) So, it's not 'out there' to imagine Felix could run a 50.0 leg. I'm not saying she will, I'm just bringing this to the table as a possibility, which it is.
Will be very surprised if the USA 4x4 team ,in whatever names and order in the final, loses to the Russians. when you have two outstanding talents on the last two legs. Imo it is not remotely possible that the current USA Team will lose, subject to fitness. Winning time between 3.16.5 and 3.18.
Oh how I miss Demus! Next year the US should be on fire! Richards, Felix, Demus, Hastings, Trotter, Wineburg...but that's next year...back to this year...the US will be fine and I'd be very shocked if they lost as well. Even if Hastings isn't back to sub 50 form or even 50 point (although I think she will medal...call me crazy
 ), she is a relayist and will hold her own on the relay as she has done all year!
It would be a mistake to run Felix and Richards on the last two legs. If you want to maximize everyone's speed, not to mention the competitive balance of the lineup, Felix should run 2nd(to make up any gap from the leadoff, forcing her to run her best), and Richards anchor(for the same reason).
I am being sacrastic because you are being stubborn! In light of your lastest data, it might be more accurate to compare the relays splits of the above individuals to their times in the 400m at the same meet. Paris 2003 USA last leg - Sanya Richards 50.28, 51.32 in semis (didn't make finals) Russia last leg - Natalya Nazarova 50.93, 49.98 (4th in finals) Athens 2004 USA 3rd leg - Sanya Richards 49.8, 50.19 (6th) USA 4th leg - Monique Hennagan 49.73, 49.97 (4th) Russia 2nd leg - Natalya Nazarova 50.0, 50.65 (8th) Russia 3rd leg - Oleysa Zykina 50.89, N/A (didn't make team in open 400m) So it is not as bad as you paint it. I will still take the position that a person is more than likely going to run a faster relay split than their open time in the 400m.
I agree 100%. BUT, the key factor is competitiveness. All of my 400 runners have finish line-to-finish line relay splits at least .5 faster than their open PR's, but all were accomplished at State or Nationals. I wouldn't expect too many scorching 4x400 splits when the team is winning by 5 seconds.
When USA had three sub-50s in '05, which also comprised the '04 oly gold winners, I didn't think Helsinki would be a problem. Well...
Regarding Felix and the schedule, it would doubt the possibilities of her running the 4x4 heat given that the 200 final the night before and likely 4x1 double duty on the same day. And unlike past greats, this would be her inaugural effort at such (multiple individuals, multiple relays). A by product of the collegiate championships, perhaps. Though as you say, Kersee has some understanding of the problem. The finals - thats another thing.
Very true. The only way I can see Felix splitting 50.0 is if she is running all by herself with a huge lead. Of course, her split of 50.0 at Penn Relays argues that she can still split faster than her open 400m which was a PB of 51.12 at the time. The suggestion that she could split 50.0 due to inexperience and other reasons are not persuasive at all.
I will still take the position that you're more likely to run a faster relay split too as most do - I've never said the opposite! I provided that data as you were quoting relay split vs PB/SB. Of course, Felix wont run in the individual 400m, so we can only use her SB/PB outside the Games. But the 4x4 is often a tactical affair, it's not you racing in your own lane, it's running behind a runner at their pace, deciding when to take over, when to break when you're in the lead etc etc. Even at a fast pace it still comes down to tactics, and this is where Felix is slightly less experienced, tis all I'm saying! I wont over egg the custard, let's just leave it now!
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